The 64th Primetime Emmy Awards are tonight and since it conflicts with a Ravens game, I, unfortunately will not be watching. I will be recording it to at least watch the intro before going to bed. Not watching it live will in no way hamper my trying to guess who's going to win tonight. I'm offering up who I personally think should win the category and who I think will actually win. Last year was my first attempt at this and I did really bad, so let's see how this one goes.
Lead Actor - Comedy
Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock
Louis C.K. - Louie
Don Cheadle - House of Lies
Jon Cryer - Two and a Half Men
Larry David - Curb Your Enthusiasm
Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory
Should Win: Louis C.K. Sure, he's writing for himself and directing himself, that doesn't dull his accomplishments in my eyes. His performance on Louie manages to be comic and dramatic at the same time, while covering a whole swath of topics.
Will Win: Jim Parsons. When in doubt, go with whomever won last year. The times I've watched Big Bang Theory it's obvious that Parsons is doing good work, so I can't begrudge a repeat win for him here.
Lead Actor - Drama
Hugh Bonneville - Downton Abbey
Steve Buscemi - Boardwalk Empire
Bryan Cranston - Breaking Bad
Michael C. Hall - Dexter
Jon Hamm - Mad Men
Damian Lewis - Homeland
Should Win: Bryan Cranston. This is a real tough one because all the men gave great performances, with the stand outs being Cranston, Hamm, and Lewis, but even Michael C. Hall is still good in whatever Dexter craziness is up these days. I have to give the edge to Cranston here because his performance in season four of Breaking Bad was so phenomenal, especially his break down a the end of "Crawlspace."
Will Win: Bryan Cranston. The only reason he didn't win last year was that he was ineligible to be nominated. He won for the first three seasons of Breaking Bad, and I see no reason he won't take another statue for the fourth.
Lead Actress - Comedy
Zooey Deschanel - New Girl
Lena Dunham - Girls
Edie Falco - Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey - 30 Rock
Julia-Louis Dreyfus - Veep
Melissa McCarthy - Mike & Molly
Amy Poehler - Parks and Recreation
Should Win: Amy Poehler. All I have to do is point to the moment in the finale when Leslie got chocked up because she was able to vote for herself and everyone should be on board for this win. Unfortunately, you need to know the character history for that to really resonate, and the academy members obviously don't watch Parks and Rec. Oh well, being nominated is an honor, too.
Will Win: Julia-Louis Dreyfuss. A multiple past winner on a hip new HBO show, I think she has this in the bag. Lean Dunham may sneak in since her show had more buzz, but my money's on the established winner.
Lead Actress - Drama
Kathy Bates - Harry's Law
Glenn Close - Damages
Claire Danes - Homeland
Michelle Dockery - Downton Abbey
Julianna Margulies - The Good Wife
Elisabeth Moss - Mad Men
Should Win: Claire Danes. Easy pick. Her and Elisabeth Moss are the only two out of this category I really like and Danes just knocked it out of the park on Homeland. Her performance of a CIA agent hiding her bi-polar disorder while trying to capture a man she believes to be a terrorist mole. Riveting stuff. Her breakdown near the end of the season was a marvel to behold.
Will Win: Claire Danes. This is this year's Margo Martindale. Nobody comes close to her performance, should be a lock to win.
Supporting Actor - Comedy
Ty Burrell - Modern Family
Jesse Tyler Ferguson - Modern Family
Max Greenfield - New Girl
Bill Hader - Saturday Night Live
Ed O'Neill - Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet - Modern Family
Should Win: Max Greenfield. I really hate this category and the academy's Modern Family blinders. They do good work on that show, but there are so many better supporting actors out there that don't even get a chance, most notably Nick Offerman for Ron Effing Swanson, because all four of these guys are going to get nominated every year. In the case of Max Greenfield, he was easily my favorite part of New Girl, he gets my vote.
Will Win: Ed O'Neill. I think they're spreading the Modern Family wealth around and I'm actually surprised he didn't get a win in the past two years. It's going to be Ed this year and Jesse next.
Supporting Actor - Drama
Jim Carter - Downton Abbey
Brendan Coyle - Downton Abbey
Peter Dinklage - Game of Thrones
Giancarlo Esposito - Breaking Bad
Jared Harris - Mad Men
Aaron Paul - Breaking Bad
Should Win: Giancarlo Esposito. It's really a toss up with him and Aaron Paul, though. I'm giving it to Giancarlo mostly because it's his last chance to get a win for this role.
Will Win: Aaron Paul. He won it the last time he was eligible, I think he'll take it again. I might have put Jared Harris here if there wasn't some aversion to Mad Men getting acting wins. I learned my lesson last year picking a lot of those and no one won.
Supporting Actress - Comedy
Mayim Bialik - The Big Bang Theory
Julie Bowen - Modern Family
Kathryn Joosten - Desperate Housewives
Sofia Vergara - Modern Family
Merritt Weaver - Nurse Jackie
Kristen Wiig - Saturday Night Live
Should Win: Sofia Vergara. Her, Ty Burell, and Nolan Gould are the only parts of Modern Family that I think are consistently good, and considering her competition (read: a bunch of other actresses I wouldn't pick at all), I'd like to see her get it.
Will Win: Sofia Vergara. The academy loves Modern Family, and since Julie Bowen won last year I think they'll go to Vergara this year.
Supporting Actress - Drama
Christine Baranski - The Good Wife
Joanne Froggatt - Downton Abbey
Anna Gunn - Breaking Bad
Christina Hendricks - Mad Men
Archie Punjabi - The Good Wife
Maggie Smith - Downton Abbey
Should Win: Christina Hendricks. "The Other Woman," that is all. It was stellar performance in a stellar episode. Should be an easy win, but...
Will Win: Maggie Smith. I think Hendricks would be the best chance to see a Mad Men acting win this year, but I was burned by that big time in my predictions last year when I thought Jon Hamm and Elisabeth Moss were locks to win. Meanwhile, Dame Maggie Smith, movie star, is over on a critically loved and popular English show, I think she has this.
Comedy Series
30 Rock
The Big Bang Theory
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Girls
Modern Family
Veep
Should Win: Girls. Parks and Recreation should win, but alas, it's not nominated. Neither are Community, Louie, New Girl, and Cougar Town. All of which I think are heads and tails above what was nominated, with exception of Girls. Lena Dunham put together a personal and funny look at living in New York in your twenties.
Will Win: Modern Family. Easy prediction, that show wins every category it's nominated for.
Drama Series
Boardwalk Empire
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland
Mad Men
Should Win: Breaking Bad. Another toss up with Mad Men, but Homeland and Game of Thrones aren't far behind in my book. Breaking Bad gets the edge for me because of the phenomenal end to the fourth season, it kept building the tension until you thought it couldn't get anymore tense, and then it did. The revelation at the very end gives me chills just thinking about it.
Will Win: Mad Men. It's won four years in a row and the show is still going strong, no reason to think it won't make number five.
So that's it, we'll see how I do tonight.
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